Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 0.119035 0.134334 0.150872 0.170084 0.191796 0.215582 0.243630
2025-12-21 0.093964 0.113870 0.136977 0.165804 0.200838 0.242087 0.294416
2025-12-28 0.079090 0.102221 0.130858 0.168974 0.218467 0.280697 0.365107
2026-01-04 0.065456 0.089793 0.121779 0.166988 0.229426 0.312893 0.433427
2026-01-11 0.055697 0.080777 0.115628 0.167744 0.244006 0.352007 0.517463
2026-01-18 0.048444 0.074012 0.111447 0.170471 0.261673 0.398048 0.618979
2026-01-25 0.040235 0.064510 0.101817 0.163607 0.264051 0.422063 0.691783
2026-02-01 0.033310 0.055869 0.092146 0.155065 0.262329 0.439313 0.756671
2026-02-08 0.028408 0.049717 0.085481 0.150277 0.265840 0.465344 0.840251
2026-02-15 0.024261 0.044192 0.079017 0.144765 0.267127 0.487611 0.920768
2026-02-22 0.021964 0.041575 0.077193 0.147157 0.282828 0.537614 1.060158
2026-03-01 0.019102 0.037480 0.072087 0.142638 0.284822 0.562416 1.155249
2026-03-08 0.016806 0.034198 0.068174 0.140104 0.290867 0.597100 1.278703
2026-03-15 0.014838 0.031271 0.064530 0.137560 0.296552 0.632124 1.409606
2026-03-22 0.013700 0.029878 0.063776 0.140914 0.315212 0.697200 1.617832
2026-03-29 0.012311 0.027739 0.061146 0.139800 0.323946 0.742288 1.789339
2026-04-05 0.011264 0.026196 0.059581 0.140828 0.337742 0.801063 2.004287
2026-04-12 0.010447 0.025053 0.058739 0.143408 0.355649 0.872414 2.263704
2026-04-19 0.009200 0.022708 0.054779 0.137865 0.352828 0.893326 2.398754
2026-04-26 0.008028 0.020367 0.050494 0.130837 0.345118 0.900810 2.499979
2026-05-03 0.007172 0.018693 0.047600 0.126916 0.344868 0.927523 2.659145
2026-05-10 0.006386 0.017082 0.044637 0.122351 0.342146 0.947268 2.802632
2026-05-17 0.005995 0.016460 0.044146 0.124422 0.358175 1.021135 3.119032